President Donald Trump took a shifting tone on the midterms on Wednesday, pointing out that even if Republicans lose control of the House, Senate, or both, he would remain the U.S. commander-in-chief. The shift in tone came just two days after he urged supporters in Alaska to “pretend” it was him on the ballot, a campaign message he has repeated often in recent weeks, as forecasts have shifted to favor Democrats to gain control of both chambers. Republican candidates have been put on the defensive as Democrats have surged in polling and Trump has seen his approval rating consistently slope downward.
GOP leaders have redirected money to once-thought-safe House districts and Senate races in an attempt to limit losses. The White House insists that Trump remains central to the Republican campaign, with spokesman Davis Ingle describing him as the party’s “unequivocal leader” and saying his policy positions on the economy and the border presented voters with a clear choice between a “commonsense agenda” and the “Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction” in November. Ingle told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement that Trump had built “one of the most robust coalitions in political history” through the MAGA movement.
Newsweek contacted the White House and the Republican National Committee via email for further comment Thursday morning. Trump has spent much of the campaign at rallies, asking supporters to act as if his name is on the ballot. The latest comments signal a shift in messaging, reminding voters that whatever happens in the midterms, he remains in the Oval Office.
I'm here whether we win this or not," the president told reporters. VoteHub’s October 15 forecast projected 231 Democratic and 204 Republican House seats. Its Senate model showed Democrats reaching 52 seats, compared with 48 for Republicans.
Prediction markets told a similar story. Polymarket gave Democrats a roughly 6 in 10 chance of winning both chambers, compared with 29 percent for a Republican Senate and Democratic House, 9 percent for a GOP sweep and 1 percent for a Democratic Senate paired with a Republican House. Kalshi’s prices placed a Democratic sweep at 61 percent, divided control with Democrats taking the House at 29 percent, a Republican sweep at 11 percent and the reverse split at 0.8 percent.
These figures are not vote projections or scientific surveys. Forecasts combine information about individual races, while market prices reflect what traders collectively believe is likely. Both can move sharply before Election Day.
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