The shift occurred without a comparable collapse in his broader Republican coalition, with 82 percent of GOP respondents still approving of his performance in the latest survey. Instead, the polling suggests that—less than 10 weeks before the November midterm elections—some of Trump’s support has softened, leaving fewer Republicans firmly enthusiastic, even as most continue to back him. It is significant because Trump’s political strength has long depended not only on Republican support but also on the depth of enthusiasm behind it.
Trump’s influence over the Republican Party has often been associated with an intensely committed base capable of shaping primary elections and pressuring elected officials. /Ipsos polling suggests that broad GOP loyalty remains intact, but the intensity underpinning it has weakened. In January, Republicans who strongly approved of Trump comfortably outnumbered those who approved only somewhat. By August, that relationship had reversed.
The January 23-25 /Ipsos Core Political survey found that 49 percent of Republicans strongly approved of Trump’s job performance, compared with 37 percent who somewhat approved. Overall Republican approval was 85 percent, with disapproval at 15 percent, producing a net approval rating of +70 points. The poll surveyed 1,139 adults, including 340 Republicans, and had margins of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points overall and 5.4 points for Republicans.
From February 18-23, strong approval among Republicans slipped to 46 percent while somewhat approval rose to 39 percent. Total GOP approval remained at 85 percent and disapproval at 15 percent, giving the same +70 net approval rating figure. The large-sample survey interviewed 4,638 adults, including 1,469 Republicans, with margins of error of 1.5 points for all respondents and 2.6 points for the Republican subgroup.
April produced a more pronounced change. Strong Republican approval fell to 39 percent while 38 percent approved somewhat. Overall approval stood at 78 percent, with 22 percent disapproving, yielding a +56 net approval rating.
Conducted from April 24-27, the survey included 1,269 adults and 435 Republicans, with margins of error of 2.9 points overall and 4.8 points for Republicans. Strong approval recovered to 43 percent in the May 8 to 11 poll, while 39 percent of Republicans somewhat approved. Total approval rose to 82 percent.
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