The EU can’t pretend Friedrich Merz isn’t in trouble any longer. After a string of humiliating election losses where the far right has made historic gains and an internal fight with his own coalition over social care policy, EU partners are starting to plan for the prospect that the German chancellor could be ousted — or at least distracted — in the crucial coming months, according to five diplomats and officials who spoke to POLITICO. They were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks.
Two European governments have even held internal sessions to game out what the end of Merz’s chancellorship would mean for EU policymaking, two of those familiar with the discussions said. It’s not a prospect they take lightly. Merz leads the EU’s largest economy and is the chief negotiator for wealthy countries seeking to rein in spending in the bloc’s proposed €2 trillion seven-year budget.
He is also a driving force behind EU efforts to save heavy industry. With France facing its own far-right surge and a presidential election next year that could hand power to euroskeptic Marine Le Pen, few in Brussels relish the prospect of Germany, historically the EU’s other major player, turning inwards or derailing important negotiations. The contingency planning, which has seen officials and diplomats brainstorm the situation, comes after months of mixed signals from Berlin on EU policy, including car emissions and a proposed social media ban for children.
Even if Merz stays in office, the political turmoil is already complicating Berlin’s work on the EU’s biggest files. The worst-case scenario for Brussels would be a leaderless Germany, or one with a far-right government. But that is seen as virtually impossible in the short term, with none of the mainstream players seeking new elections while the far-right Alternative for Germany party are leading in the polls.
That should give Brussels confidence “someone will always be in charge,” said one of the diplomats. For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls. Those who know him insist Merz won’t be distracted when it comes to EU affairs.
In the immediate term, Merz’s political weakness at home could make finding compromise on the bloc’s next seven-year budget harder by pushing the chancellor to double down on Berlin’s hardline stance in search of a win, a further two diplomats warned. As the leading voice for countries seeking a smaller EU budget, which leaders hope to agree by year-end, Merz has called for cuts of “hundreds of billions of euros.” Germany, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Austria and the Netherlands are pressing for overall reductions, while net recipients such as Poland and Romania want to protect their share. Nobody who could replace him as chancellor “would be able to be more flexible than Merz is,” said one of the diplomats, but “the risk is he has to show his self-perceived leadership in Brussels in the hope it will help his standing in Germany.” An envoy from another country said “domestically he is weak [which means] he can’t compromise” and needs to be seen to score a win by slashing the budget as far as possible.
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