Law enforcement activity has been a "key factor" in reducing the number of small boat Channel crossings, the National Crime Agency (NCA) says. The number of people arriving in the UK in the first half of 2026 was down 41% on the year before, government figures show. The NCA said the drop followed a "significant increase in arrests and seizures", although added "fluctuating demand" for crossings, and the French authorities preventing boat launches had also played a role.
However, Mihnea Cuibus, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford University's Migration Observatory, says it is "impossible" to disentangle the effects of government policy and other factors on small boat arrivals. While recent policy changes appear to have led smugglers and migrants to alter their behaviour, Cuibus says fewer unauthorised arrivals into the EU and developments in key origin countries - such as improved security in Syria - may be partially behind the decline. "It is hard to know how much restrictive measures contributed to reducing [arrivals] in 2026," he continues.
He said limitations on refugee family reunion and a reduction in the asylum grant rate could also have had an impact. The Conservatives have previously said the weather played a huge role in the fluctuating numbers of crossings from France and Belgium. NCA director general of operations Rob Jones said the agency was "devoting more resources to tackling organised immigration crime than ever before".
"However, we are not complacent, and the job is by no means done," he continued. "We must continue to keep up the pressure on these criminal gangs, as they continue to put lives at risk in the Channel." The NCA said organised crime groups had been affected by "supply constraints" on vital equipment used in crossings. More than 1,600 boats or engines have been seized by the authorities since late 2023, it said.
The wholesale cost of these items has gone up as a result, according to an NCA spokesperson. The NCA said a "number of key suppliers" had also been targeted, including the jailing of Adem Savas who reportedly supplied equipment used in about half of all crossings in 2023. However, the NCA also admitted the war in the Middle East had also made it harder for criminals to source dinghies.
It added it could not publish its report on small boats in full because it contained sensitive intelligence. Between 1 January and 7 September 2026, a total of 17,281 people crossed the English Channel by small boat from France. This was down by 43% on the same period the previous year.
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