This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: More than 80% of North American forests could face greater threats from pests and diseases by midcentury, a University of British Columbia-led study finds. If global emissions continue unchecked, rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns could amplify tree pests and diseases across more than 80% of North American forests within decades, jeopardizing critical carbon sinks, air quality and the forestry economy.
This is the key finding of the study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution. The researchers found that insects pose the more immediate threat, with more than 60% of the areas examined projected to experience 30% more insect pressure by midcentury. Species like the spongy moth, already wreaking havoc in Canadian forests, could expand significantly in eastern North America by midcentury.
Pests and diseases already damage tens of millions of hectares of North American forest annually, costing billions of dollars in economic losses. "The forests that exist today aren't going to be the ones that exist in 2040," said senior author Dr. Jonathan Davies, a professor in the departments of forest and conservation sciences and botany.
"The process is happening already. I think we've got to put everything on the table because the status quo is no longer tenable." The researchers combined data from more than 1 million trees across the United States and parts of Canada with current and historical climate data to identify where future risks are most likely to emerge if emissions continue on their current trajectory. "Our maps can help forest managers identify where additional monitoring and prevention efforts should be focused," said Dr.
Zihui Wang, a postdoctoral researcher in UBC's department of botany and lead author of the study. "We can also project which tree species may be particularly vulnerable and which pests and pathogens could pose the biggest threat, giving us a window into the future and hopefully, a head start on protecting our future forests." Climate change is creating a complex mosaic of winners and losers rather than affecting every forest in exactly the same way, Davies said. Forests that have traditionally been cooler are more likely to experience increases in insect and disease damage as temperatures rise.
In some areas that have historically been warmer, the effects may be smaller or even reversed. Pests that may become more common as the climate warms include the woolly adelgid, which has devastated hemlock forests in parts of eastern North America, and the spongy moth. Northern or mountain species such as gray willow, Rocky Mountain fir and black spruce are projected to face some of the greatest increases in pest and disease pressure.
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