Democrats begin Election Day on Tuesday favored to capture the Senate, but several races central to their path remain within the range of the polling margins of error. Silver Bulletin gave Democrats an 81.5 percent chance of control at 2 p.m. ET Monday, with an average projection of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats.
VoteHub placed their probability at 68 percent, while Decision Desk HQ gave them a 65 percent chance and projected a 52-48 chamber. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for outright control because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in favor of Republicans. Senate control will determine which party leads committees, advances legislation and confirms presidential nominees during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.
Democrats' path depends on several close contests moving in the same direction. Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that a small numerical advantage does not necessarily amount to a meaningful lead when candidates’ possible ranges overlap. Against that uncertain backdrop, eight contests stand out as the races most likely to determine control of the upper chamber of Congress.
Democrat Mary Peltola, a former representative and the first Alaska native to serve in Congress, is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in a ranked-choice election. Silver Bulletin put Peltola up 2.6 points, 47.8 percent to 45.1 percent. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 61 percent chance and rated the contest Lean Democratic.
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, a former television journalist, faces Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic wheelchair-basketball gold medalist. Silver Bulletin showed Turek leading by 0.7 points, 47.3 percent to 46.6 percent. Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans a 53 percent chance, effectively treating Iowa as a coin flip.
Democrat Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of the nation’s largest United Methodist congregation, is attempting to unseat Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Silver Bulletin put Hamilton up 3.3 points, 49.4 percent to 46.1 percent. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 51 percent chance, its closest Senate forecast.
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