Senate race, the state's gubernatorial election has drawn closer in the final stretch of the campaign—with the Democratic challenger, state Representative Gina Hinojosa, showing a potential lead over Republican Governor Greg Abbott. Abbott, who has held the office since 2015, has been in front for much of the 2026 midterm campaign, but polling in recent weeks and days has shown Hinojosa gaining on him. Other recent polling has shown Abbott out in front, a position he has dominated for much of the past few months in a state that has mostly voted Republicans to statewide office for the past few decades.
"Republicans might wish that the election had been held yesterday, last week, or last month because the political terrain continues to shift against them," Calvin Jillson, a professor at the Dedman College of Humanities and Sciences at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, told Newsweek. "No one is more stunned than Greg Abbott to find himself in a horse race down the stretch," he continued. "He started 2026 with a $105 million war chest to Hinojosa's $3 million or $4 million; he had 100 percent name recognition while Hinojosa was little known outside her Texas House district.
Abbott did nothing in particular wrong, except to be a visible member of Team Red, and it may cost him." Newsweek contacted the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment via email Monday afternoon. In its final poll before Tuesday's election, The New York Times/Siena showed Hinojosa with a 1-point advantage over Abbott, in a 48-47 percent split among 1,215 likely voters surveyed October 27 to November 1. Another poll from AtlasIntel, conducted October 28 to November 1 among 1,678 likely voters, showed the Democrat with 49 percent of the vote compared to Abbott's 48 percent.
Abbott has mostly led polling across the campaign, with surveys in June and July putting him about 6 or 7 points ahead. By mid-October, that lead had narrowed to a few points, with RealClearPolling classing the race as a toss-up, rather than a certain GOP win. Texas hasn't elected a Democratic governor in decades.
Ann Richards was the last, in 1990, and Abbott has never lost a statewide election. In 2022, Abbott defeated former U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke by 10.9 points, a far larger margin than current polling suggests in the 2026 race.
Abbott, who has been a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump and enacted his own hard-line border security policies, has also seen some warning signs when it comes to the demographics of voters. In an October 21-25 Texas Southern University poll, which showed Abbott ahead overall, Hinojosa led him with independents, women and adults aged 18-34. Sunday's Times/Siena poll also showed Hinojosa beating the current governor with women, adults aged 18-44 and Black, Hispanic and other non-white voters.
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