Democrats are hoping to erase Republicans' narrow majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, when all 435 House races are up for grabs. Republicans currently hold 218 House seats to Democrats' 214, with one independent and two vacancies, so Democrats only need to flip a few seats to win control of the chamber. Democrats enter Election Day optimistic about their chances of flipping control of the House, as the party outside of the White House historically has picked up seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular.
That is the case for Presisdent Donald Trump, whose approval has suffered amid voter frustration with the state of the economy and cost of living. Only a fraction of the 435 contests are expected to determine the outcome. Roughly 50 House races were expected to be competitive, stretching from battleground districts in Arizona and California to Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
A Democratic takeover would establish a major check on the Trump administration. It would give Democrats the ability to block legislation passed without bipartisan support, while opening the door to congressional investigations of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, a continued Republican majority would preserve the GOP's control of the lower chamber and strengthen Trump's ability to pursue his legislative agenda.
On the eve of the election, the Cook Political Report classified 18 races as being pure toss-ups, with an additional 18 in each category for Lean Democratic and Lean Republican. An additional 18 races were classified as being Likely Democratic, with 17 landing in the Likely Republican column. The forecaster gives Democrats an overall edge to take the House, favoring them in 222 races.
But those toss-ups will have major implications for the size of the potential Democratic majority. A larger one would give the party more of a mandate to block the administration's actions as well as more cushioning on major votes where some Democrats may defect. A handful of races in states that are called early could signal how deep Democrats are able to penetrate Trump-won districts.
Here is a look at the dynamics at play in five of the races to watch early in the night. One of the earliest tests of the night will be in Kentucky's 6th District, which Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. It's based around Lexington and it suburbs and is seen as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
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