Senate candidate James Talarico, a Texas Democrat, is polling more strongly against Republican Ken Paxton than Beto O’Rourke generally did before his narrow 2018 loss to Republican Senator Ted Cruz. The comparison matters because O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of Cruz despite trailing in nearly every late survey, while Talarico has led several recent polls. Texas voters will decide whether those early advantages represent a Democratic breakthrough in the November midterms or another competitive race that ultimately returns a Republican senator.
Newsweek approached the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment via email and website contact form, respectively, on Wednesday morning. Texas Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election since 1988, making O’Rourke’s near miss the modern benchmark for judging whether the party can compete statewide.
Talarico’s current numbers suggest a stronger polling position, but not yet a safer one. The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey found Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative and former Presbyterian seminarian, leading Paxton, the 51st attorney general of Texas, by 3 points, 42 percent to 39 percent. Libertarian Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 14 percent of respondents had not formed a preference.
Conducted August 5-13 among 1,200 registered Texas voters, the poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, or 3.58 points after accounting for weighting. Talarico’s lead therefore falls close to the survey’s uncertainty range. The same pollster had Paxton, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, ahead by 1 point in June, 43 percent to 42 percent.
Because the surveys represent separate samples, that change should not automatically be read as a four-point movement toward Talarico. Another recent result underscores the uncertainty. Emerson College surveyed 1,000 likely voters August 9-10 and found Paxton ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, with a 3-point margin of error.
Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53 percent to 38 percent, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a release. Taken together, the findings describe a close contest rather than a settled Talarico advantage. Different surveys also use registered or likely voters and do not always offer the same candidate choices, limiting direct comparisons.
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