📲 Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices. But that hasn't happened. Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, record-high intensity of opposition, and voters are blaming him for prices that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy. But the war with Iran and Trump's tariffs were choices that have directly led to increased prices on goods and energy. The economy is increasingly bifurcated with the wealthy doing well, in large part, because of increasing stock portfolios dominated by AI companies, while regular Americans are turning against AI data centers, struggling because of inflation that is outpacing wages, a middling labor market and interest rates that are creeping higher.
Those rates are making it harder to buy a home or a car, making millions of people feel like they're treading water. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed a plurality — 44% — said their finances have mostly stayed the same and another 38% saying their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% said things have actually gotten better for them from a money standpoint.
Add to that the disapproval of the administration's hard-line immigration enforcement tactics, cuts to domestic spending on programs like Medicaid and other health care programs, and the slashing of regulations and the government workforce, and it's angering swing voters and firing up Democrats. As a result, the president's party is likely to pay the price. Midterms are usually difficult for the president's party to begin with.
Only twice since World War II has the president's party gained seats in the House in a midterm election. On average, the president's party loses 26 seats in midterm years, and it's worse when a president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's has been. When that's the case, the presidents' parties have lost an average of 35 seats.
When they're above 50%, they still lose seats but only 15 on average, 20 seats better than when a president is unpopular. The fact that presidents' parties lose seats in midterms is something Trump himself has acknowledged multiple times at campaign events. Meanwhile, Democrats have had political success in this Trump term.
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