The FlyDubai stabbing is contributing to concerns that Iran could increase covert and deniable attacks as the conflict with the United States and Israel drags on. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, meanwhile, said there are "strong indications" Iran played a role in a suspected terror plot near RAF Fairford, the British air base used by U.S. forces during operations against Iran. Counterterrorism police have since arrested a dual UK-Iranian national on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
The two suspected attacks are raising questions over whether Iran's war strategy is shifting, but experts caution not to treat the incidents as equally indicative of Iranian involvement — or evidence yet that Tehran has changed its tactics. FLYDUBAI PILOT SHOWED WORLD 'THE HIGHEST FORM OF COURAGE,' INDIA'S PM SAYS President Donald Trump said early information he has received points to a possible Iranian connection to the attack aboard an Israel-bound FlyDubai flight, where a co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain and attempted to crash the aircraft with more than 180 people aboard. The United Arab Emirates and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have described the FlyDubai incident as terrorism, but UAE authorities have not publicly attributed the attack to Iran.
Neither investigation has publicly established that the Iranian government directed the attacks, and Iran has denied involvement in the Fairford case. Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Fairford case fits more closely with Iran's recent use of hired operatives and other intermediaries. "The attack on the airbase in the United Kingdom does fit more recent patterns," Byman told Fox News Digital, while stressing how much remains unknown about the investigation.
RUBIO CONFIRMS 'FOREIGN ACTOR' INVOLVED IN UK TERROR PLOT The FlyDubai attack would be a more significant departure. "That is quite different, and that is something that Iran in the past, at least we haven't seen Iran do," Byman said. "It is plausible to me that Iran is involved, but that seems like much more of a stretch based on Iran's traditional way of operating." But the uncertainty surrounding the attacks also illustrates part of the appeal of the broader strategy Iran has spent decades developing: using proxies, covert operatives, criminal networks and other intermediaries to threaten adversaries far beyond its borders while making Tehran's own role more difficult to establish.
Matthew Levitt, a former Treasury and FBI counterterrorism official who now directs the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute, said Iran has increasingly sought to put more distance between itself and the people carrying out overseas operations. "Typically Iran does not admit that it's involved in these types of attacks because it wants reasonable deniability," Levitt said. "There are several advantages for Iran to using terrorism," Byman said.
"One is that there is often a degree of deniability." "Terrorism gives Iran a lot more reach," he added. Levitt, however, put the distinction with conventional warfare more bluntly. "If Iran shoots a drone or a missile at you, you know where it came from and you know where to shoot back," he said.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
