Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has received his strongest polling result yet in his race against Republican Ken Paxton, with a new New York Times/Siena College survey putting him seven points ahead in Texas. The poll, released Sunday, November 1, found Talarico leading Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, giving the Democrat his biggest advantage in the race ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections. The result represents a significant boost for Talarico, who is attempting to secure a Democratic Senate victory in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1988.
The survey is particularly notable given Siena's reputation as one of the country's most highly regarded polling organizations. VoteHub gives the New York Times/Siena polling operation an A rating. It is the strongest result for Talarico from a nationally recognized pollster in the contest, although an April University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey previously found him eight points ahead of Paxton, 42 percent to 34 percent.
That survey, however, included registered rather than likely voters. RealClearPolitics' polling average also shows Talarico ahead, although by a narrower margin than the latest NYT/Siena survey. Its average of polls conducted between October 15 and November 1 put Talarico at 49 percent against Paxton's 46.5 percent, a 2.5-point advantage.
Newsweek contacted Talarico's and Paxton's campaigns on Monday via email for comment. The latest polling result comes as prediction markets increasingly favor Talarico to win the Senate contest. On Polymarket, the Democrat was trading at approximately 76 percent to win, compared with 26 percent for Paxton, according to the latest available market figures.
Kalshi also showed Talarico ahead, putting his chances of victory at approximately 74 percent, against 26 percent for the Republican. Kalshi's accompanying margin forecast suggested Talarico could win by approximately 3.8 percentage points. The prediction-market figures represent implied probabilities based on trading prices rather than conventional polling and can change as traders react to new developments.
Nevertheless, the markets suggest Talarico has established himself as the favorite heading into Election Day, despite Texas having consistently backed Republican Senate candidates for decades. At a recent campaign event, Talarico described the election as a battle between "the powers that be and the powers that ought to be," accusing powerful interests of having "bought and paid for Ken Paxton." He said his campaign stood with "teachers and nurses, farmers and ranchers" and other ordinary Texans, adding: "Those Texans are my team, they are why I'm in this race." Paxton, meanwhile, has continued campaigning across Texas as he attempts to overcome Talarico's polling advantage. Speaking at a rally in San Antonio on Sunday, the Republican highlighted affordability and his proposed "Protecting the Texas Promise Plan," which he described as an economic vision intended to put thousands of dollars back into Texans' pockets.
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