Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the state's high-profile U.S. Senate race, according to a recent survey ahead of the November election. The poll, conducted by SoCal Strategies, shows Talarico ahead with 50 percent of the vote compared to Paxton's 45 percent.
The figures mark a shift from the pollster's June survey, which had Paxton leading 49 percent to 47 percent. While Texas has long functioned as a Republican stronghold in federal races, shifting demographic and political dynamics have rendered recent cycles increasingly competitive. Newsweek contacted the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment by email outside of regular working hours.
The survey, carried out between September 12 and 13 among 649 likely voters, indicates that state Representative Talarico commands advantages across multiple voter groups. His support among Hispanic voters grew from 10 percent in June to 38 percent, while his backing among independent voters rose from 10 percent to 45 percent. Among self-identified Republicans, support for the Democratic candidate edged upward to 12 percent, alongside 46 percent among voters aged 18 to 29.
Attorney General Paxton maintains advantages among white voters (56 percent to 39 percent), voters aged 45 to 64 (49 percent to 46 percent), and voters over 65 (51 percent to 44 percent). The poll also signals potential tightening as the election approaches, noting that Republican voters appear more undecided than their Democratic counterparts. "Much like the last poll, Republicans are less decided than Democrats.
While six percent of respondents who said they backed Trump in 2024 are currently undecided in the Senate race, the same can only be said of one percent of those who say they voted for [Vice President Kamala] Harris," the survey report noted. "To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these voters and peel back a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who say they would vote for Talarico if the election were held today." President Donald Trump has thrown his support behind Paxton, calling him the "greatest attorney general in America." He has also repeatedly criticized Talarico, calling him "Talafreako" on social media and in speeches. Texas has backed Republican presidential nominees in every election since 1980, but Democrats hope 2026 will offer one of their best opportunities in years to compete statewide.
Trump carried Texas by 13.7 percentage points in 2024, defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris 56 percent to around 42.5 percent. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation's longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped its electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate bid against Ted Cruz.
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