Democratic hopeful James Talarico’s chances of defeating Republican Ken Paxton in the closely watched Texas Senate race have reached new highs across four election and prediction trackers. Talarico, a Texas state representative, is running against Paxton, the state attorney general who defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff, for a seat that has long been in Republican hands. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years.
A Talarico victory could also provide Democrats a significant boost as they try to take back the majority in the upper chamber. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats need to defend all their seats and flip four others to regain power. An election roundup shared on X by InteractivePolls showed The Economist giving Talarico a 58 percent chance of winning, compared with Paxton’s 42 percent.
Decision Desk HQ’s model and VoteHub's Senate forecast both placed Talarico’s probability at 55 percent and Paxton’s at 45 percent. The Polymarket prediction market has Talarico at a 56 percent chance of winning compared to Paxton's 45 percent as of Tuesday. Unlike an opinion poll or statistical forecast, the Polymarket figures represent prices set by traders buying and selling contracts tied to the election’s outcome and can change continuously.
Newsweek has contacted campaigns for Talarico and Paxton, via email, for comment. The rising numbers for Talarico have developed over several months rather than in response to a single survey. Decision Desk HQ’s historical series began May 28 with the Democrat at 43 percent and fell as low as 40 percent in June and July.
His probability reached 50 percent for the first time on August 7, climbed to 51 percent on August 12 and hit 55 percent on August 28. The model then slipped to 52 percent on September 9 before jumping back up to 55 percent the following day. It fell again to 53 percent on September 11 and rebounded to 55 percent on September 14, matching a high for the Texas state lawmaker.
Decision Desk HQ says its forecast gives a 45 percent weighting to polls, 30 percent to fundamentals and 25 percent to prediction markets. Its polling average now places Talarico approximately 4 points ahead, while the model’s projected election margin is narrower, at about 2 points. The difference reflects the model’s consideration of Texas’ Republican baseline and other structural factors alongside current surveys.
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