Rather than jumping to a 2-0 start, the New York Jets are reeling from a late collapse in Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers. After blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, the Jets had the ball with a chance to regain the advantage in the closing minutes. Facing a fourth-and-1 at midfield, quarterback Geno Smith lined up from the shotgun next to running back Braelon Allen.
The Packers stuffed the ensuing handoff to no gain, forcing a turnover on downs before completing the comeback win in overtime. Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich stood by his choice when speaking to reporters on Thursday. "The bottom line is I’m always going to call what I think is the best play in that moment," Reich said, per Dennis Waszak Jr. of the .
"And that’s what I did in the game. When it doesn’t work out, it’s, sure, you’re upset about it. You think, ‘Ah, maybe I should have called something else.’ Because it didn’t work.
But you’ve got to live with the results. "I’m comfortable and confident in the calls that we called." Reich cited data to back up his decision. According to multi-year studies from the Jets' analytics department, fourth-and-1 runs from the shotgun (excluding quarterback sneaks) had a higher success rate (71%) than those run under center (67%).
"So, the gun run’s actually better," Reich said. "And the reason it’s better, percentage-wise, over a five-year period is because there’s a threat of a pass and they (the defense) don’t get so tight. We had that perspective going in." Meanwhile, the success rate on a 4th-and-1 pass falls to 57%.
Aside from the few teams particularly skilled at running the Tush Push, a shotgun handoff is statistically an offense's best bet. "The analytics would say a gun run — a gun direct run — is the best percentage call in that play," Reich said. "And for us, that’s what we had, that’s what I had the most conviction in.
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