Republican Senator Susan Collins has opened her first lead over Democrat Troy Jackson in an independent poll of Maine’s closely watched Senate race since Jackson became the party’s nominee. A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey found Collins ahead by three points, with 49 percent support to Jackson’s 46 percent. Five percent were undecided.
The race nevertheless remains highly competitive, as Collins' advantage falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The survey questioned 619 registered voters from September 15 to 22. It follows a Quantus Insights poll conducted September 14 and 15 that placed Collins at 47.1 percent and Jackson at 46.4 percent, effectively a statistical tie within its 4.3-point margin of error.
Other recent polls gave Jackson narrow leads. The new findings suggest Collins is attracting crossover support despite difficult conditions for Republicans in Maine. Fifty-five percent of respondents said they wanted Democrats to control the Senate, while 51 percent viewed Collins favorably, compared with 41 percent for Jackson.
Collins also received support from 8 percent of Democrats, while the candidates were tied at 47 percent among unenrolled and other voters. The results offer a potential warning for Democrats because Maine is among the party’s leading opportunities to gain a Republican-held seat. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a tossup.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure an outright Senate majority. The poll was conducted largely before publication of a report concerning an abandoned FBI investigation connected to Collins and several other lawmakers. Collins’ office has denied wrongdoing, while the FBI previously said its investigation found nothing implicating Collins or her campaign.
Newsweek contacted Collins and Jackson’s campaigns for comment via email on Thursday morning. This is a developing story. Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story.
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