Mary Peltola is the early front-runner in Alaska's chaotic 2026 Senate race, with betting markets and recent polls both suggesting the Democrat holds a narrow but real edge over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan—even as a second man named Dan Sullivan threatens to scramble the math. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan advanced from Alaska's all-party primary this week, setting up a general-election clash with Democrat Mary Peltola that polling suggests could be decided by the slimmest of margins. Control of a competitive Senate seat may hinge on a quirk of Alaska's ranked-choice system—and on whether the fourth and final general-election slot goes to a Republican or a Democrat.
Peltola, Sullivan and Alaska voters all face a general election whose shape is still being determined by a handful of ballots, with national implications for the Senate balance of power. Newsweek contacted Peltola and incumbent Senator Sullivan’s campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday morning and is awaiting responses. Alaska sends its top four primary finishers to a ranked-choice general election, a system that rewards candidates who can win second- and third-choice support.
Peltola built a national profile by winning a U.S. House seat under those same rules before losing it, and she is now betting the mechanics can work for her again. With 88 percent of ballots counted as of August 26, Peltola led with 48.2 percent, followed by incumbent Dan S.
Sullivan at 42.6 percent and retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. at 2.5 percent, per AP estimates. Peltola, Sullivan and the second Sullivan have clinched three of the four general-election slots.
The final spot is a near-tie between Republican Gerald L. Heikes and Democrat David B. Leslie, both hovering around 1.1 percent.
In raw terms, roughly 19 votes separate a final four of two Democrats and two Republicans from one featuring a single Democrat and three Republicans—two of whom share a name. Counterintuitively, Peltola may prefer Heikes. A three-Republican field would splinter conservative first-choice votes among several candidates before those ballots eventually consolidate behind Sullivan, while Peltola stands alone as her party's flag-bearer.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
