A new hurricane season record is likely to be set this week as a historic and still strengthening El Niño stifles tropical development in the Atlantic. To date, no hurricanes have formed in the basin, despite this week marking the peak of the season on average - and there's no sign of development in the near future. It means a new record is likely to be set for the latest date in the satellite era (1960s onward) without an Atlantic hurricane forming.
Currently, the record is 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013. In an average season, there would have been eight named tropical storms and three hurricanes by this point. This year, however, there have only been five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.
With few indications that there will be any development in the next week, this will mean the longest stretch into in a season where no hurricane has formed in the modern satellite era. In the eastern Pacific, where El Nino tends to strengthen hurricane activity, it has been fairly active season so far. There have been 13 named storms including five hurricanes, three of which were major.
This is close to the number that would typically develop in the whole of an average season. The latest, major hurricane Lowell, hit Hawaii this week with damaging winds, flooding rain and high waves. Forecasters predicted the Atlantic hurricane season would be quieter than average.
In May, the National Hurricane Center forecast a total of eight to 14 named storms, three to six of which would become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. The reason for this below-average forecast is El Niño. While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe.
In a typical hurricane season, upper winds over the Atlantic increase and this leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height. Increased wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes. El Niño is already on track to be one of the strongest on record, expected to peak in November or December.
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