ET Sunday window for Week 4, including Patriots-Bills and Jaguars-Bengals both on CBS (and streaming on Paramount+). But I'm here to look at the 1-2 Packers visiting the winless Buccaneers, because the season is pretty much over for the loser. Especially so for Tampa Bay, which starts life without injured quarterback Baker Mayfield.
And it gives me a chance to address a truly bonkers against-the-spread trend. $1,500 in bonus bets: It is usually great weather in Tampa (a city I lived in for many years) this time of year, and that's mostly the case Sunday, although it's somewhat hotter than normal for early October. Hey, at least there are no hurricanes. The forecast: Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms.
At -3.5 at DraftKings, the Packers are taking 61% of money but the Bucs 57% of bets. There is huge Over action on 39.5. Go back to late October last season.
Tampa Bay was coming off a 23-3 win in New Orleans to improve to 6-2 entering its Week 9 bye. The Bucs were in control of the NFC South and Mayfield was playing close to an MVP level. Since then, the Bucs are 2-10 straight-up and an incredible 0-12 ATS.
That's the longest ATS losing streak since the merger in 1970, and what's amazing is that Tampa Bay was the favorite in eight of the 12 -- and at least a TD favorite in three. Mayfield and Co. were 1.5-point home dogs this past Sunday against unbeaten Minnesota, and the Vikings stayed that way with a 23-16 victory. The former Heisman Trophy winner Mayfield wasn't having a great game at 17-for-34 for 217 yards with a TD and pick before leaving in the fourth quarter after dislocating his thumb on his throwing hand.
Mayfield was trying to make something out of nothing on fourth-and-13 with 1:54 left and his team trying to rally from down 20-16. He was under a pass-rush siege and was hit by Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman. The throw was picked off.
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