Senate race show Democrat Peggy Flanagan ahead of Republican Michele Tafoya, heading into Election Day. Flanagan is Minnesota's lieutenant governor, while Tafoya is a former NFL sideline reporter. They are competing for the open U.S.
Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Tina Smith. Three of the latest surveys put Flanagan's lead between three and seven percentage points. InsiderAdvantage has her ahead 49 percent to 46 percent, KSTP/SurveyUSA gives her a 48-41 lead, and Research Co. puts her ahead 52-47 among decided voters.
Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, when Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale. Coleman subsequently lost his 2008 reelection bid to Democrat Al Franken following one of the closest and most protracted recounts in Senate election history.
The state has since remained in Democratic hands in every Senate election. It makes this year's contest between Flanagan and Tafoya another test of whether Republicans can break a decades-long losing streak in statewide races. Minnesota has retained a Democratic lean in recent statewide federal elections, but its margins have sometimes been relatively narrow.
Smith defeated Republican Jason Lewis by about five points in the 2020 Senate election, while Democrat Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by 4.2 points in the 2024 presidential election. The InsiderAdvantage survey was conducted October 29-30 among 1,200 likely Minnesota voters using a mixed text and panel methodology. It was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
With Flanagan three points ahead, the candidates' individual margins of error overlap. One percent was undecided, and 4 percent supported another candidate. Research Co.'s poll was conducted online from October 30 to November 1.
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