The final polls coming out of the Maine Senate Race have shown the Democrat Troy Jackson with a notable lead over his Republican rival, incumbent Senator Susan Collins. Jackson held a 6-point advantage in the latest survey from the New York Times and Siena University, while leading Collins by 9 points and 5 points in polls from the University of New Hampshire and YouGov, respectively. Monday also saw the release of a survey from AtlasIntel, which put this advantage at 9 points.
Collins did lead 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent in an Emerson College poll conducted October 31 to November 1 among 600 likely voters, though this was within its margin of error. Maine is one of the seven battlegrounds on which the balance of power in the Senate will depend. The state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S.
Senate since George Mitchell, who left office in 1995. One expert went as far as saying Collins was “one of the most difficult Republicans to unseat.” Newsweek has contacted both campaigns for comment. Jackson entered the race in late July as a replacement for Graham Platner, who dropped out following accusations of sexual assault which he has denied.
The Democrat has since led in the majority of major polls, though most have fallen within their respective margins of error. But aside from the Emerson College survey, the polls published Sunday and Monday have given Jackson some of his strongest results yet. The Times/Siena poll—conducted October 27 to November 1 among 714 Maine voters—had Jackson at 51 percent and Collins at 45 percent.
This marks a major shift from mid-September, when Collins was leading 49 percent to 46 percent. He is more trusted on the cost of living (+7), “what’s best for ordinary Mainers” (+7) and “foreign wars” (+3). He trails Collins by a point on immigration.
Despite this advantage, he continues to struggle in terms of general favorability. In the seven battlegrounds where the poll was conducted, Democrats are ahead in every race with the exception of Maine, where Jackson currently sits on a net negative rating of 3, compared with negative 1 for Collins. The University of New Hampshire survey, fielded October 27 to 31 among 1,633 likely voters, had Jackson leading Collins 54 percent to 45 percent, widened from a 3-point lead when he first entered the contest in July.
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