Russians begin heading to the ballot box today to choose a new parliament for the first time since Vladimir Putin ordered his forces into Ukraine and sent them bearing down on Kyiv. Five years on from the last State Duma elections, the so-called "special military operation," or SVO, has reshaped every facet of Russian society. Its industry, economy and legislation are all increasingly geared to sustain war, no matter what the public thinks.
Now, Putin wants a government to match. More than 180 party-backed candidates registered for this election are SVO participants. This is no coincidence—Putin has openly declared that war veterans should form the "leadership cadre" of Russia’s future, and created a program to fast-track Ukraine war veterans into senior political and state-linked corporate positions.
By creating a warrior class at the center of Russia’s political elite, the Kremlin is killing several birds with one stone. A parliament full of war veterans legitimizes the SVO and guarantees enduring support for whatever measures Putin sees fit to prosecute it. It also gives military members more social currency in a society whose veteran population is growing exponentially.
But this is not a foolproof plan. What if one day, they stop taking orders? Spoiler alert: Putin’s United Russia party is going to win this election.
Candidates from Yabloko—the only nationally recognizable party openly opposing the war—were stripped from the federal party ballot, while United Russia has scarcely bothered campaigning. The party is highly likely to comfortably secure the 300 of 450 seats it needs to maintain a constitutional majority. At first glance, public support for the war in Ukraine looks healthy.
In August, 68 percent of respondents to independent Levada Center polling said they supported the actions of Russia’s armed forces in Ukraine. A month earlier, when Russians were asked to choose between making concessions to Ukraine and the West to end the war or ramping up attacks on Ukraine, 56 percent backed escalation, versus just 25 percent who would’ve preferred concessions. But these numbers conceal a dangerous truth.
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