When Vladimir Putin arrived to address Russia's parliament on Wednesday, a warm welcome was guaranteed. "The Special Election Operation", as one Russian newspaper dubbed last month's legislative vote, has produced a State Duma even more pro-Putin than anything before it. The ruling party, United Russia, now has more MPs than ever.
It allows the Kremlin to claim it has been handed a huge mandate from the Russian people. Are there any signs he is prepared to halt what he calls the special military operation? Or should we brace for further escalation in Ukraine and in tensions with Europe?
On Thursday I'll be watching to see whether Russia's leader sheds light on his plans during an appearance at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow. Traditionally the president's speech at this annual foreign policy forum provides insight into Putin's world view. Right now, everything points to Putin continuing Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: despite his country's huge battlefield losses to date and the damage being done to Russia's economy.
Putin's speeches and statements suggest he remains confident that Russia can secure a military victory. Judging by what is being reported in Russian media, Moscow is encouraged by the shortage of air defence missiles in Ukraine, as well as the expectation that Russian strikes this winter will increase pressure on Ukrainians. Kyiv has spoken of its difficulty in shooting down Russia's ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, which have been targeting Ukraine every day.
The Kremlin has made no secret of the fact it wants European states to slash their military and financial backing for Ukraine: the kind of support Moscow says is prolonging the war - or, rather, getting in the way of a Russian victory. To achieve this, Western officials believe Russia has been sending not so subtle signals. They accuse Moscow of waging an escalating hybrid war on European countries through cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and Russian drones violating European airspace.
In Germany, a drone carrying an explosive device was found close to Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport. A covert campaign in the "grey zone", that space between peace and war. This week I asked Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, does he admit that his country is waging a hybrid war against European countries?
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