Republican congressman tries to outrun a potential blue wave in New York toss-up seat

ROCKLAND COUNTY, New York – Photos of children and grandchildren line the wall behind the counter at Sparky's Diner, a local joint that sits on the corner of a busy intersection in Garnerville, New York, about an hour outside New York City. "I've been in this place 50 years, it'll be 51 in February," said Jeannie Nicolakis, the diner's owner. "I started out – I didn't even have my kids at the time – and then I had my kids, and I raised them in here, in a playpen." But her pride doesn't stop at her family.

It extends to her congressman, Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican running for reelection in New York's 17th district. It is one of the closest races in the country in a seat encompassing a string of commuter towns and suburbs around the Hudson River Valley. That's how I see him," she said, before adding, "not really my son – because I'm old enough to be his grandmother – but I see him as a grandson that's done so much for this county." To supporters like Nicolakis, no one can take Lawler's place.

But this district is far from a Republican stronghold. It's one of just a handful of places that elected a Republican to the House of Representatives in 2024 and also voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat. Two years later, Lawler's ability to hold onto the seat could be a deciding factor in determining whether Republicans can keep their narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

He faces a competitive challenge from Democrat Cait Conley, a military veteran and former counterterrorism official during the Biden administration who has sought to chip away at the broader coalition that's elected Lawler to congress twice before. Lawler has tried to position himself as a Republican who is unafraid to cross his own party and highlights examples on the campaign trail, including how he broke with the administration over the decision to end a policy that shielded nearly 350,000 of Haitian migrants from deportation. Lawler says he was able to get the White House to temporarily extend work authorizations for beneficiaries of the program, however that has since expired.

He also regularly touts his work to raise the state and local property tax deduction, or SALT cap, a popular issue among his constituents that became a flash point in negotiations over Trump's massive tax and spending bill. Lawler ultimately cast a deciding vote in favor of the legislation, though critics have argued that other key parts of the bill have hurt voters, notably, thesizable cuts to federal healthcare funds. At the same time, Lawler hasn't shied away from Trump.

"The truth is that the president and I don't always agree, and that's okay. After all, we're both New Yorkers," Lawler said in an address at the Republican National Convention in September. "What I learned about President Trump behind closed doors is that if you're willing to make your case and fight for what you believe in, he's willing to listen." With less than a month until Election Day, Democrat and Republican-aligned groups have already collectively spent more than $40 million on ad spending in this race.