Pro-Kremlin military bloggers have acknowledged Ukrainian forces made notable battlefield advances as a map by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows four breakthroughs along the front line in the eastern Donbas region. The so-called Z-bloggers have admitted what the Kremlin cannot, namely Ukrainian advances east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two fortress belt cities whose capture are key to Vladimir Putin’s ambitions of taking Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Despite battlefield realities, Putin continues to claim gains.
Last week, he said that his forces had captured 500 square miles in September. This is a figure that the ISW described as bordering on "hallucinations," given its estimate of a Russian net loss of 30 square miles. But Russian Telegram channels have admitted Ukraine had liberated settlements and made advances near Lyman, an area which has been the focus of Operation Vivaldi, a counteroffensive touted by Ukrainian Third Army Corps commander, Andriy Biletski.
"Operation Vivaldi significantly improved Ukraine’s positions north of Lyman, denying Russian forces the opportunity to cut the Kharkiv-Sloviansk and Izium-Sloviansk highways, which are critical to Ukrainian logistics," military analyst Giorgi Revishvili told Newsweek. He is a former senior adviser to the National Security Council of Georgia. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment and awaits a response.
Russian military bloggers whose messaging is not controlled by the Kremlin have acknowledged that Ukraine had made advances east of Kramatorsk, as the ISW map shows. These included liberating the settlement of Ozerne and making advances further south around Malynivka and Holubivka. The two other major gains the Z-bloggers noted were advances in the fields east of Pyskunivka and into southern Minkivka.
"Russian milblogger claims that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River are notable, as the river is a significant natural obstacle," the ISW said in its latest update on Thursday. The Washington, D.C., think tank said that the Russian sources feared that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Slovyansk and Kramatorsk directions "may have cascading effects and implications for Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt." It would mean that Russian troops gathering towards the cities would be difficult. Any push by Moscow towards Slovyansk may be "doomed" due to failure or high casualties if Russian forces cannot recapture forests south of the city of Lyman.
While Operation Vivaldi had significantly improved Ukraine’s positions north of Lyman and disrupted Russia’s efforts to establish a northern pincer around the Fortress Belt, Revishvili said that Putin is likely to continue with his attempt to seize the Donbas in full and pursue grinding advances into the cold months. He said that Putin is betting on intensifying attacks on critical infrastructure and residential areas with combined missile and drone strikes, "could become a breaking point for Ukrainian society, freezing it into submission and compelling Kyiv to surrender." On Thursday, a Russian strike on a bus in Kramatorsk killed at least 33 people and injured 22 according to Ukraine's emergency service (DSNS). "Russia comes to the Ukrainian land with death.
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