Republican Steve Hilton has closed his deficit against Democrat Xavier Becerra to eight points in a new poll of California's governor race. Becerra leads Hilton 49.2 percent to 41 percent among 912 registered voters, with 9.8 percent undecided, according to the survey conducted August 14-16. The poll was commissioned by Hilton's campaign and conducted by David Wolfson, a pollster and faculty member in Columbia University's Political Analytics graduate program.
It carries a 3.3-point margin of error and used MMS text-to-web methodology. Federal HHS oversight reports have documented gaps in sponsor screening and follow-up for unaccompanied migrant children, creating potential safety risks, but they do not establish Hilton's claim that HHS sent thousands of children into sex or labor trafficking. Newsweek reached out to the Hilton and Becerra campaigns for comment Monday.
The result stands out against a summer of consistent double-digit leads for Becerra. A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted August 3-9 among 2,310 likely voters in partnership with the Los Angeles Times found Becerra ahead 55 percent to 37 percent, an 18-point margin. A Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted June 29-July 6 put Becerra's lead at 25 points, 61 percent to 36 percent.
A Kreate Strategies poll in mid-June found a similar 25-point gap. The gap between the Wolfson poll and other independent surveys is also reflected in prediction markets, which have barely moved despite the new poll. Polymarket has put Becerra's odds of winning in November at roughly 93 percent to 96 percent in recent weeks, compared with 3 percent to 4 percent for Hilton.
Kalshi shows a similar spread, with Becerra near 96 percent and Hilton near 4 percent. An eight-model prediction aggregator run by OddsShopper put Becerra at 96.4 percent and Hilton at 3 percent. Becerra and Hilton emerged from a contentious jungle primary in June and will face off in the November general election.
Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, received Trump's endorsement in April. He has called the endorsement “a very powerful driver of turnout” heading into the midterm election. Becerra served as secretary of Health and Human Services during the Biden administration and previously served as California's attorney general and a member of Congress.
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