RIO GRANDE CITY, Texas — When Cynthia Villareal voted for President Donald Trump in 2024, she did so trusting his campaign promises of lower gas prices, border security and “assistance for the people — for the middle class.” The 43-year-old mother of four turned out for Trump alongside a sizable majority of voters in heavily Latino Starr County, which hugs the border with Mexico and had reliably turned out for Democratic candidates for five generations. Less than two years later, Villareal said the promise of her vote never materialized. They haven’t — they haven’t at all,” said Villareal, who drives around the Rio Grande Valley for her job supervising home health aides and feels every little surge.
Villareal manages workers in a shortstaffed, tough profession where wages have simply not kept up with the cost of living. Many of her best workers, she said, are immigrants without permanent legal status experiencing the brunt of Trump’s immigration agenda. Ahead of the midterms, Latinas are also registering higher levels of regret when thinking about their support for Trump, a dynamic that may decide the outcome of competitive races from Texas to Florida and beyond.
Voters like Villareal shed light on how Trump regret among this swingy and powerful group of voters — Latinas vote at higher rates than Latino men — may be the swell that breaks into a blue wave for Democrats this November. And I say that because of the shifts we’ve seen over time and the shifts back that we are seeing now among Latina women in particular,” said Stephanie Valencia, who studies Latino voters at Equis Research. Latinos’ political power this cycle is spread across the midterms map.
Latinos make up at least 15 percent of the population in six of the 17 most competitive congressional districts, as well as in 29 other districts considered broadly competitive, mostly in the Southwest, California and Florida. Latino voters could be the deciders in competitive races for the U.S. Senate in Texas and Florida.
Also in Texas, Latinos could swing the most competitive governor’s race the state has seen in years and, in doing so, elect the first Latina to the state’s top job. I also think people were tired. We’ve been Democratic for over 100 years — why don’t we try something different?” said Cecilia Hernández, who founded the local political group Somos STARR this year in response to the big swings to the right she’s seen in her community.
In an interview at the office of her family’s trash collection business, Hernández said voters’ views are shifting this cycle. They report higher levels of financial stress and are less optimistic about the national economy, according to multiple surveys of Latino voters conducted over the past year. An expansive survey of Latinos conducted in the spring and sponsored by UnidosUS, a Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization, found that Latinas are more likely than Latino men to say that they have trouble meeting expenses — 23 percent of women vs. 17 percent of men.
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