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The Race to Replace Mitch McConnell: Latest Polls, Odds as Senator Returns

The Race to Replace Mitch McConnell: Latest Polls, Odds as Senator Returns

newsweek.com 15.09.2026 21:47 2 views
McConnell returned to the Senate this week after a months-long absence that raised questions about transparency.

Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate this week following a months-long absence, as Democrat Charles Booker seeks to defeat Republican Representative Andy Barr to flip the seat in the traditionally conservative state. McConnell suffered a fall at his Washington, D.C., home in June that left him briefly unconscious. The months-long absence with few updates that followed drew scrutiny and calls for greater transparency into the health of the 84-year-old Republican leader.

The incident comes amid broader debate about aging leaders in both political parties. McConnell is not running for reelection, and his current term ends in January 2027. The Bluegrass State has established a reputation as a solidly Republican state, so the GOP is forecast to have an advantage this year, and the state is not ordinarily viewed as competitive.

But Democrats are hoping to expand the battleground as President Donald Trump’s approval has reached new lows amid economic concerns, ongoing inflation and soaring gas prices during the Iran war. Still, Kentucky voted for Trump by nearly 31 points in 2024, making it a tough lift for Democrats. Barr was first elected to Congress in 2012.

He represents a light-red district based around Lexington, its suburbs and more rural areas of Central Kentucky. Booker is a former state representative. He ran in the 2020 and 2022 Senate races, losing the 2020 primary to Amy McGrath.

He won the primary in 2022 but lost the general election to Republican Senator Rand Paul. Newsweek reached out to the Barr and Booker campaigns for comment via email. Polling on the race is limited, but one internal Democratic poll suggested a closer-than-expected race given how conservative the state is.

The Global Strategy Group showed Barr with a 9-point lead against Booker, 49 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from August 24 to 27, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was first reported by Lexington-based news station WDKY.

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