Kansas' Senate race is showing signs of becoming more competitive than Republicans might have expected in a state where Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in nearly a century. A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, with libertarian David Graham at 4 percent. The September 15-16 poll is the first independent survey this cycle to show Hamilton ahead.
Marshall is seeking a second term, while Hamilton, the founder of the country's largest United Methodist Church, is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to make a stop in Olathe, Kansas, on Monday to show support for Marshall. Newsweek reached out to Hamilton and Marshall campaigns for comment Friday.
Marshall remains the favorite, though the latest Emerson College poll suggests the race could be closer than many expect. An earlier co/efficient poll, conducted September 8-10 among 915 likely voters, had Marshall leading Hamilton 49 percent to 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.22 percentage points.
Other recent surveys have shown a tighter race. A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 12-16 among 800 likely voters found Hamilton narrowly ahead, 44 percent to 43 percent. The one-point difference was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Another August poll showed Marshall with a narrow lead. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted August 7-8 had Marshall ahead 46 percent to 45 percent. The available results do not report a margin of error.
Election forecasters have said the Senate race in Kansas has become more competitive since Hamilton won the Democratic nomination in August, though Marshall is still favored to win. The Cook Political Report shifted the contest from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" after Hamilton’s primary win. But prediction markets remain much more favorable to Marshall.
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