President Donald Trump told Republicans in Dallas on Wednesday to act as if he were running in November, while promising adults $5,000 if the GOP keeps Congress after the midterm elections. Republicans are trying to reproduce presidential-election turnout among Trump supporters even as his national approval ratings remain deeply negative. Four polling averages reviewed by Newsweek place his approval between 35 percent and 39.6 percent, with disapproval ranging from 57.1 percent to 63 percent.
Candidates in competitive House and Senate races could gain from stronger MAGA turnout or lose support among voters dissatisfied with the president. The party holding the White House usually faces a difficult midterm environment. Trump’s answer is to make the election less about individual Republican candidates and more about whether voters want to preserve his power in Washington.
Trump is not legally standing for office this year, but he wants Republican voters to approach November 3 with the urgency of one of his presidential campaigns. That strategy rests on a familiar Republican concern: some voters who turn out enthusiastically for Trump are less dependable when another candidate heads the ticket. Making him the face of the midterms is intended to close that participation gap.
Yet the same approach carries an obvious risk. If Republicans ask Americans to vote as though Trump is running, voters unhappy with his presidency may do exactly that. Recent polling shows why the wager is so uncertain.
CNN’s latest Poll of Polls put Trump at 35 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval. The September 1 average combined six national surveys of adults conducted between July 22 and August 31, including polls from /Ipsos, UMass Amherst/YouGov, Strength in Numbers/Verasight, Marquette Law School, AP-NORC and CNN. /Ipsos surveyed 1,167 adults from August 28 to 31 with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. UMass Amherst and YouGov questioned 1,000 adults from August 21 to 26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent, while Strength in Numbers and Verasight surveyed 1,514 adults from August 14 to 19, with a 2.6 percentage point margin of error.
RealClearPolitics produced a less negative result, although Trump remained well underwater. Its August 16 to September 8 average showed 39.6 percent approval and 57.1 percent disapproval, a net rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of minus 17.5. The underlying surveys mix adults, registered voters and likely voters, one reason its result differs from CNN’s adults-only measure.
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