President Donald Trump returns to Ohio today to campaign for Jon Husted, but neither polling nor prediction markets suggest his previous visits delivered a lasting boost for the incumbent Republican senator in the state’s special U.S. Both campaigns are now fighting for turnout before the November 3 election as Trump prepares to appear in Chillicothe, his third Ohio stop in 26 days. The rally will also be the fifth visit to the state this month by either the president or Vice President JD Vance, who vacated the seat to join the Trump administration.
Democrat Sherrod Brown currently leads Husted by 3.3 points in the RealClearPolling average, 48.2 percent to 44.9 percent, while prediction markets give the former senator a wider advantage. At the time of writing, Kalshi priced the race at 68 percent for Brown and 32 percent for Husted. Polymarket put them at 69 percent and 31 percent respectively.
While polling has remained broadly stable, prediction markets have moved against Husted since Trump’s first visit. Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that unified control of Washington could make it difficult for Republican candidates to distance themselves from public dissatisfaction. "There’s no escaping accountability when voters are looking for a finger to point," he said.
"They know exactly where to point it, and right now it’s pointing directly at Republicans." That dynamic may complicate the value of repeated presidential visits. While Trump can energize the Republican base, each appearance also connects Husted more closely with an administration carrying the burden of voter concern over prices, health care and federal policy. Panagopoulos also pointed to pressure on working- and middle-class communities, including concern about health care and the effects of reductions in government programs.
"Some of Trump’s policies have hit the Midwest especially hard, particularly farmers affected by his trade policies and tariffs," he said. Newsweek emailed the Husted and Brown campaigns for comment on Wednesday morning and is awaiting responses. Midterm elections have historically created difficult conditions for the president’s party, making every competitive Senate seat important to control of Congress.
Republican concern is particularly striking in a state Trump carried by 11.2 points in 2024. The current contest will determine who completes the Senate term won by Vance in 2022 before he resigned to become vice president. Trump opened the run in Vandalia, near Dayton, on October 3, telling supporters to vote as though his own name were on the ballot.
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