Two years ago, Boise State made a statement by taking No. 7 Oregon down to the wire in a 37-34 road loss that solidified the Broncos as the team to beat outside the Power Four. The Broncos led in the fourth quarter after Ashton Jeanty's third touchdown run, and it took a walk-off field goal for Oregon to survive. The Ducks, wobbly as they may have seemed in Week 1, went on to earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
After going toe-to-toe with the eventual Big Ten champions, Boise State ran the table until a 31-14 loss against Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. As Boise State prepares for a rematch on Saturday at No. 2 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS), the Broncos again have the opportunity to cement themselves as the top Group of Six program.
As a 24-point road underdog against a loaded Ducks team, the Broncos' viability will be assessed on more than whether they merely win or lose. Even if they don't pull a monumental upset, how they look will play a significant role in shaping the early-season discourse about which Group of Six program will earn an automatic CFP bid in 2026. With teams like Memphis and North Dakota State already notching impressive Week 0 victories, Boise State needs to be respectable in defeat to maintain its status as the obvious top dog in the Group of Six landscape.
A year ago, the Broncos ceded their supremacy to South Florida with an uninspired 34-7 Week 1 loss. Though Boise State ultimately won the Mountain West title, it finished 9-5 and well outside the playoff discussion. Typically, these early-season challenges provide an excellent barometer for the Broncos.
Boise State opened with a 36-31 road upset of Florida State en route to a 12-2 season. On the flip side, a 56-19 season-opening loss at Washington in 2023 foreshadowed a mediocre season by the program's lofty standards. While the Broncos won the Mountain West that year, they finished just 8-6 and underwent a midseason coaching change.
The writing was on the wall when the Huskies racked up 490 passing yards on a listless Boise defense. The floor has remained remarkably high for Boise State under several coaches and more than three decades. But the ceiling can typically be determined early, and that's what the Oregon game represents: a chance for the Broncos to set the bar for the other Group of Six challengers to clear.
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