Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says he has examined the possibility of a US military attack against Canada, according to The New York Times. In an interview with the newspaper on Wednesday, Carney described an attack as an “extreme tail risk” – an event with a very low probability but potentially severe consequences. Here is what that might mean.
The main bones of contention are the ongoing trade war and Trump’s jibes about Canada becoming a US state. Shortly after Trump returned to the White House in 2025, he imposed a 25 percent tariff on goods imported from both Canada and Mexico, saying they would not be lifted until both countries took steps to curb the flow of fentanyl, a highly addictive and lethal drug, into the US. The leaders of Mexico and Canada struck a deal pausing the impending tariffs for 30 days, but they were reimposed on Canada in early March after Trump declared that it had failed to do enough.
In July 2025, he threatened to raise that to 35 percent unless Canada backed down on a digital services tax, which it agreed to do. Canada, the biggest foreign supplier of steel and aluminium to the US, was also badly hit by Trump’s separate 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminium, which he imposed globally in March 2025. Since last year, trade talks have continued but ultimately collapsed in August, and both sides have since imposed new, tit-for-tat tariffs.
Trump levied 50 percent taxes on $20bn of Canadian goods, and Canada matched them for US goods. The problem for Canada is that its economy is closely tied to that of the US, making a trade war particularly consequential. Some 72 percent of Canada’s $556bn goods exports went to the US in 2025.
Trump has made much of this dependence. When trade talks fell apart this year, Trump responded to Carney’s announcement by writing on his platform Truth Social: “Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one!!!” Trump also took the provocative step of renaming Lake Ontario – which sits along the border of Canada and the US – “Lake America”. Carney is, therefore, seeking to reduce that dependence.
His government is also reviewing its planned purchase of American F-35 fighter jets, while Carney said that Canada also intends to rely less on SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service. This month, he has visited the European Union and the United Kingdom in a bid to expand alliances. The EU has offered associate membership to Canada, while Canada has applied to join the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a European military coalition.
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