Jamie Dettmer is an associate editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO. If Democrats do as well as expected in today’s U.S. midterm elections, champagne corks will pop across Europe. But those raising a glass may want to think about the morning after.
A Democratic takeover of Congress is unlikely to offer Europe immediate relief. Constrained at home, Trump would still be free to focus on foreign policy and trade, where the U.S. executive branch faces relatively few congressional checks — increasing the risk of fresh disputes and tougher demands on Europe. But while opinion polls suggest the U.S. president’s European critics will get their wish, they’d better avoid any triumphalism or crowing, counsels Ischinger.
Others are skeptical that reticence will make any difference. They include Nathalie Tocci, a former adviser to two EU foreign policy chiefs. And it will be hard not to celebrate, she argued, if you “care about democracy,” given the ties between Trump’s MAGA movement and populist, far-right politicians in Europe.
A setback for Trump could lift the spirits of Europe’s liberals and centrists, who have seized on electoral rebuffs for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić as evidence that populism has peaked — or at least plateaued. That conclusion may be premature. The polling strength of France’s Marine Le Pen and recent gains by Germany’s Alternative for Germany suggest populist politics remain potent.
Still, a rebuff for MAGA would give liberals and centrists a morale boost, Tocci said. But would a Democratic victory benefit the EU in the near term? A Democratic takeover of Congress would have little practical impact on Europe and could even make matters worse.
Bush’s last U.S. ambassador to NATO, is of the same mind. They will investigate Trump, his family, Trump family businesses, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel at the FBI. Trump will fight this all the way, and it’ll be a big circus.” “Okay, the Democrats will be much more supportive of Ukraine and NATO, but they can’t direct Trump to do things,” he added.
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