Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is facing renewed criticism over his appeal to Black voters just days before the midterm election, raising questions about whether he can maintain a crucial part of the Democratic coalition in one of the country's most consequential Senate races. The stakes may extend well beyond Michigan. With Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to reclaim control of the Senate, the party cannot afford to lose the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Gary Peters.
Black voters have historically been essential to Democratic victories in the midwestern battleground state, and even a modest decline in their turnout or support could prove decisive. For El-Sayed, the challenge is not only defeating Republican Mike Rogers, but also uniting a Democratic coalition that remains divided following a contentious primary. Recent polling suggests El-Sayed has substantial Black voter support, even if his numbers remain below those achieved by prominent Democrats in previous Michigan elections.
A Data for Progress poll conducted October 23–25 found that 82 percent of Black likely voters supported El-Sayed, compared with 15 percent backing Republican Mike Rogers. That compares with the 87 percent of Black Michigan voters who supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to CNN exit polling. Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin received 85 percent of the Black vote in her successful 2024 campaign against Rogers.
While Harris lost at the top of the ticket, Slotkin narrowly won her race despite the slightly lower Black support. Four years earlier, Joe Biden secured 92 percent of Black voters in Michigan during his successful presidential campaign, while Democratic Senator Gary Peters received 90 percent in his narrow reelection victory against Republican John James, according to Edison Research exit polling published by The Washington Post. The comparisons suggest El-Sayed could receive a smaller share of Black votes than Democrats in recent statewide elections.
However, the Data for Progress poll also found El-Sayed performing slightly better among Black voters than Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson, who received 79 percent support. Share of Black voters supporting each candidate Sources: Michigan election exit polls (2020, 2024); Data for Progress (October 2026). El-Sayed's 82% is pre-election polling, not a final election result.
His Black-voter subgroup comprised 67 weighted respondents. Approximately 1.4 million Michigan residents are Black, representing 13.9 percent of the state's population of roughly 10.1 million, according to Michigan's official 2025 population estimates. Black voters have historically formed a critical part of the Democratic coalition, particularly in Detroit and surrounding Wayne County, as well as cities including Flint, Pontiac and Saginaw.
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