The Atlantic basin could record its first hurricane-free season in more than a century if no hurricanes form before the season ends, according to AccuWeather forecasters. This week, federal meteorologists indicated that El Niño is expected to strengthen through the end of the year, with a greater than 90 percent chance it will become a very strong event during fall and winter. The forecast followed earlier expectations of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, driven in part by the phenomenon's influence.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring Pacific climate pattern that can affect weather worldwide. Its counterpart, La Niña, is the cool phase of the cycle. Typical El Niño effects can include stormier weather across the Southern U.S., drier conditions in some northern areas, and changes in hurricane activity.
"El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the western Atlantic Ocean Basin," Matthew Rosencrans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s lead for its seasonal hurricane outlook, previously told Newsweek. "El Niño conditions are associated with more tropical storm and hurricane activity during the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons." In an email sent to Newsweek on Thursday, AccuWeather said that no Atlantic hurricane had formed by September 10, the climatological peak of the season. AccuWeather meteorologists said there was a low probability that one would develop before the end of September.
"The possibility that the Atlantic could go through its entire busiest month without a hurricane is what makes this season truly exceptional," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in the email. "Powerful El Niño conditions continue to generate disruptive wind shear across the basin, and we do not see a meaningful change in that pattern through the end of September." The Atlantic has completed only two recorded seasons without producing a hurricane, in 1907 and 1914, according to the forecasting company. Neither occurred during the satellite era, when improved technology has helped meteorologists identify and monitor storms far from land.
AccuWeather also said the latest first hurricane of an Atlantic season during the satellite era formed on September 11. That occurred in both 2002 and 2013, meaning any first hurricane forming later this year would establish a new record. Five named storms have formed this year, AccuWeather said, but none has reached hurricane strength.
The company attributed that to persistent wind shear, dry air and repeated plumes of Saharan dust. However, AccuWeather cautioned that tropical storms and tropical rainstorms could still form and bring flooding rainfall, damaging wind gusts, rough surf and significant disruption without reaching hurricane strength. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.
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