The prime minister's announcement that he will keep hundreds of criminals behind bars who would otherwise have been released early is one he has wanted to make for weeks. Andy Burnham had already expanded the list of people ineligible for early release and had consistently said he wanted to go further. What is not clear is exactly what has changed to allow him to do so.
Earlier this month, the Ministry of Justice warned that exempting any more prisoners risked "prisons reaching capacity and collapsing". The prime minister himself previously said he had "pushed to the very limits of what is possible to do". In his exclusive interview with BBC Breakfast, Burnham picked out the release of people on controversial indefinite sentences and the deportation of foreign criminals as measures that had made his latest intervention possible.
It is understood extra capacity will also be created by immediately beginning work to create new cells in existing prisons. But none of these are short-term solutions. Ending indefinite sentences will require new legislation, meaning it could be years before space is freed up.
Previous governments have struggled to quickly deport foreign offenders and there are not thought to be any new returns agreements with other countries. The case of grooming gang ringleader Shabir Ahmed, who Pakistan has resisted attempts to deport, is one example. Retrofitting prisons to create more cells is also expected to take months.
People in government concede that in the short-term, Burnham will only be able to follow through on today's announcement by making prisons even more full. With the adult male prison estate already running at 98% capacity, it is a move that could worry some in the sector. But in the end, the prime minister believed he simply had to act.
The extra exemptions Burnham has announced are being described within government as a "political decision". That is not surprising given the intense pressure that had built up, especially around the potential for PC Andrew Harper's killers to be released early. Burnham's inner circle are mindful that political misjudgements at the start of Sir Keir Starmer's premiership caused long-lasting damage.
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