The chief inspector of probation for England and Wales has told the BBC the early release of thousands of prisoners could lead to "a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder" because of the demands on probation staff to monitor offenders. The government is set to release 5,000 offenders from October as part of new laws to create more space in overcrowded prisons. Probation officers supervise offenders after prison sentences and check they follow the terms of their release, such as sticking to curfews and not taking drugs.
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said "protecting the public is our top priority", adding it had invested in probation and hiring trainee officers. But Martin Jones, His Majesty's Chief Inspector of probation for England and Wales, told the BBC that "ultimately I'm not fully confident that the probation system will be able to cope with this massive work and there's a risk that things will go wrong". "Probation services are already under unprecedented pressure.
"I mean, they're managing a caseload of 258,000 cases, that's nearly three times the number that are in our prisons, and obviously the early release scheme will be increasing that pressure considerably." On Tuesday, 50 police chiefs across the UK signed a letter to the prime minister urging him to pursue "every legal option" to prevent the early release of PC Andrew Harper's killers under the scheme. They called for greater consideration of victims when prisoners have their sentences altered, adding: "Families across the country are now facing the distress of learning that offenders may be released earlier than they understood when sentence was passed." They also welcomed Burnham's intervention on Tuesday, when he said he was "confident" the early release of Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, who were jailed for 13 years for manslaughter in 2020, in January could be stopped. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp told BBC Breakfast the early release plans had "put public safety at risk as well as disrespecting victims and undermining confidence in the criminal justice system".
He urged Burnham to "pay attention and listen" to the senior police officers, adding he had "never seen every chief constable in the country write to the prime minister directly in this way". Philip and Nick Timothy, the Conservative shadow justice secretary, wrote to Burnham on Tuesday urging him to introduce emergency primary legislation in September to amend the Sentencing Act 2026. The letter said grooming gang perpetrators, including those convicted of indecent assault, and those convicted of the manslaughter of an emergency worker should be exempt from the early release scheme.
Probation officers help former prisoners with housing, employment and access to benefits once in the community, and help protect the public by assessing the risk of further offending. Their workload will increase substantially when more offenders - some of whom will have been convicted of violent offences - are released months earlier than planned as part of the Sentencing Act. According to the chief inspector, probation caseload has increased by 8% over the last two years.
Much of that is down to a separate early release scheme which was implemented in 2024 after prisons nearly reached full capacity. That scheme has led to tens of thousands of offenders being let out sooner. When asked what risk the additional early releases due to start in the autumn could pose to the public, Jones said "that could be a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder".
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