GOP Representative Elise Stefanik’s seat in the House of Representatives is at risk of flipping to Democrats as she exits Congress, despite the district voting for President Donald Trump by about 20 points in the 2024 presidential election, according to two new polls showing a tight race. Stefanik is not seeking reelection in New York’s 21st Congressional District, based around the rural North Country region. The race to succeed her between Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien has become more competitive ahead of the November 3 midterms for a seat that forecasters say favors Republicans.
Gendebien held a 4-point lead in a new Siena University poll conducted from September 30 to October 6. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while Constantino’s support stood at 42 percent in the poll of 496 respondents. Harvey Schantz, a professor of political science at the State University of New York, Plattsburgh, told Newsweek that this is a “Republican leaning district,” but that without an incumbent, it is “susceptible to the impact of the national tide.” “At this point, if the polls are to be believed, the outcome of the election is uncertain, meaning that Gendebien has a path to victory,” he said.
The candidate has to get his supporters to turnout and avoid campaign mistakes, while at the same time hoping that the national trend turns against the Republicans.” That poll also had independent Christopher Schmidt, a write-in candidate, with 5 percent support. It carried an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. And an internal poll released by the Gendebien campaign shows Constantino with a narrow 3-point lead.
That Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters from September 29 to October 4 showed Constantino with 48 percent and Gendebien with 45 percent support. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points and was first reported by The Watertown Daily Times. Trump easily won the district by just over 20 points in the 2024 election and Stefanik won by more than 24 points.
The district was thought to be a significant uphill climb for Democrats in 2026. Stefanik flipped the seat from Democrats in 2014 and has easily won reelection campaigns. The seat was more competitive in the 2000s and early 2010s but has steadily drifted rightward over the past decade.
Alex DeGrasse, senior adviser to the Constantino Campaign, pushed back on the Siena poll in a statement to Newsweek, writing that it “included a write-in, conservative candidate, but did not include a far-left write-in candidate, intentionally skewering results for on-ballot Democrats.” “They show Blakeman underperforming by minimum 5 points compared to independent polling, and internal polling from both Gendebien and Constantino. If these numbers were accurate, national Democrats would spending here, but they are not. Gendebien has said publicly, his campaign is close to broke,” DeGrasse wrote.
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