Cook Political Report has shifted the Florida governor’s race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” signaling that the contest may be more competitive than previously expected. The move comes as Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, attempts to mount a serious challenge against Trump-backed Republican Byron Donalds. Cook noted that while Florida has become increasingly Republican in recent election cycles, the open gubernatorial race presents Democrats with an opportunity.
The forecaster pointed to Jolly’s appeal among independent voters and disaffected Republicans as one reason the race could become competitive. Jolly is running with former Democratic Representative Gwen Graham, giving the ticket a familiar presence. Still, Cook emphasized that Donalds maintains a major advantage, particularly financially.
The Republican has raised more than 10 times as much as Jolly, meaning the Democrat would need a significant fundraising boost to mount a major television campaign across the state, Cook says. Florida has moved to the right in recent years, with President Donald Trump carrying the state by roughly 13 points in 2024 and Governor Ron DeSantis winning reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022. Republicans also hold a significant registration advantage over Democrats, and the state’s newly redrawn congressional map further strengthens the GOP.
While no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 25 years, Democrats are hoping for an upset in the Sunshine State. Newsweek reached out to Donalds' campaign via email Thursday for comment. Donalds enters the general election with a substantial financial and political advantage.
He secured the Republican nomination earlier this month after winning the primary and has benefited from the backing of Trump. Jolly's campaign, however, argues that the race is moving in Democrats' direction. He argued that national observers are recognizing a shift in Florida and that the state is ready to elect a Democrat, while portraying Donalds as beholden to special interests.
Donalds' Communications Director Gates McGavick reacted to Cook's rating change on X Thursday, saying, "Nice try, guys We look forward to checking in with @CookPolitical on November 4th." The change in Cook's rating does not mean Democrats are favored to win Florida. Rather, it suggests the race deserves closer attention than a straightforward Republican victory. Donalds remains the favorite, but Jolly's ability to consolidate Democratic voters in the primary while potentially attracting independents and dissatisfied Republicans could determine whether the contest develops into a genuine battleground heading into November.
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