We’re updating this forecast to move Kansas from Lean R to Toss-up, and Nebraska from Likely R to Lean R. Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.
The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts' favor in Nebraska. A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.
We still consider Senate control a toss-up. Seven states are most likely to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 55 seats.
A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats. TRUMP-BACKED SENATOR ADMITS GOP FACES NIGHTMARE SCENARIO IN STATE REPUBLICANS HAVEN'T LOST IN 90 YEARS It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms. SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: DEMOCRATS COULD BE RIDING A MIDTERM WAVE.
THESE NUMBERS SHOULD TERRIFY THE GOP The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural, and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat. That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll.
The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.
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