BERLIN — Friedrich Merz’s center-left coalition partners increasingly see themselves facing a stark choice: Turn against the reform course they’ve struck with the chancellor or risk sinking with him. Following the conservatives’ stinging defeat to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday — a loss driven in great part by dissatisfaction with Merz and his party, the Christian Democratic Union — there are early signs the Social Democratic Party is turning against the series of reforms it has agreed to push through with the unpopular chancellor. The SPD’s pivot is likely to deepen Merz’s myriad challenges as questions mount over his ability to lead Germany’s relatively weak coalition government.
Merz has acknowledged that his dismal approval ratings helped fuel the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, but argues that the answer is to press ahead with his reform agenda while doing a better job of explaining its necessity to voters. That’s not the conclusion his center-left coalition partners have drawn: They argue the problem isn’t one of messaging but of substance. The people of Saxony-Anhalt have told us very clearly: ‘This far and no further,’” she added.
Merz has staked his chancellorship on tackling economic and welfare reforms that previous governments deemed too politically difficult, even branding himself the “reform chancellor.” His agenda includes raising the retirement age to shore up the pension system, cutting some health-insurance benefits to curb rising premiums and making it harder for workers to take sick leave in an effort to boost growth. Until now, the SPD under the leadership of Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has advanced the reform drive, portraying itself as willing to undertake the tough choices needed to restore Germany’s economy while fighting inside the coalition to resist conservative excesses. But given Merz’s growing troubles — and rising questions about the durability of the coalition government — the party’s calculus appears to have changed.
The shift also comes ahead of two additional state elections on Sept. 20 in which the SPD is hoping to score at least one much-needed win. Klingbeil signaled a course change already on the night of the Saxony-Anhalt election. The result provides “a reason to reflect on policies here in Berlin and on the federal government’s reform agenda,” Klingbeil told public broadcaster ZDF as votes were still being counted.
Given its own political weakness, the SPD is very unlikely to pull the plug on the current coalition — a move that would trigger new elections while its poll numbers are scraping historic lows. The party is currently polling at around 12 percent, 4.4 percentage points below its share of the vote in the 2025 federal election, which was its worst result in well over a century. But the recent signals from SPD leaders suggest they are looking ahead to their own political survival as Merz’s chancellorship grows increasingly precarious.
It also comes as the SPD sees a rare glimmer of hope for an election boon that could restore some of the party’s battered political standing. In the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ahead of a Sept. 20 election, the SPD’s incumbent premier, Manuela Schwesig, is polling a strong second behind the AfD. Under Schwesig — who ranks among Germany’s most well-liked politicians, according to surveys — the SPD has been able to cut into the far right’s lead in recent weeks.
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