The race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire has shifted toward Republicans, with The Cook Political Report moving the contest from Lean Democratic to Toss Up as former Republican Senator John Sununu and Democratic Representative Chris Pappas prepare for November's general election. The shift comes after newer polls show a seemingly competitive race between Sununu and Pappas. A University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll conducted in late August found Sununu at 45 percent and Pappas at 43 percent among likely voters.
A Saint Anselm College poll conducted earlier that month showed Pappas leading Sununu 48 percent to 41 percent. The race has also attracted significant spending from national Republicans, who are on pace to hold a $20 million advantage in New Hampshire, Cook notes. "Sununu allies have already outspent pro-Pappas groups by almost a 2-1 margin," according to the forecaster.
Meanwhile, midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House and Senate. Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won the state in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump by under 3 percent.
Newsweek reached out to Sununu and Pappas' campaigns via email on Tuesday for comment. Recent polling on the race has somewhat narrowed compared to earlier surveys. UNH had Pappas ahead of Sununu 49 percent to 42 percent in April and 47 percent to 44 percent in June.
RealClearPolitics currently lists the contest as a Toss Up as well, with its polling average showing Pappas at 45.5 percent and Sununu at 41.5 percent. A September co/efficient survey shows the candidates now tied at 46 percent each. The poll adds that 9 percent are undecided.
Pappas' favorability in the poll is 37 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 51 percent and 13 percent have no opinion. Sununu's favorability rating in the poll is 41 percent compared to a 47 percent unfavorable rating, while 12 percent had no opinion. The poll surveyed 958 likely general election voters in the state from September 9-11, 2026, and has a margin of error of 3.15 percent.
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