The Supreme Court’s decision to keep new Postal Service requirements on hold preserves existing mail-ballot procedures nationwide, removing a potential source of disruption in several closely contested midterm races. A Newsweek analysis has found that the ruling may be especially significant for four Toss Up House races in Colorado, Arizona and California, where mail ballots accounted for nearly three-quarters or more of statewide turnout in 2024. Those contests sit in states where between 74.7 percent and 91.3 percent of turnout was conducted by mail in 2024.
Election officials will avoid a late overhaul, but the available data do not show that the decision will favor either party or change any result. Newsweek contacted every campaign mentioned in this article, the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) via email for comment on Tuesday morning. Use the map below to explore how widely mail voting was used in each state during the 2024 general election.
President Donald Trump’s administration sought to introduce approved ballot envelopes, unique bar codes and new voter-data submissions for federal ballot mail. The Supreme Court kept those requirements from taking effect in 2026 after Justice Brett Kavanaugh said officials lacked sufficient time to implement them. Use the map below to find your state and see when your mail-in ballot must reach election officials to be counted.
A Newsweek analysis compares the latest House race ratings with the Election Assistance Commission’s (EAC) measure of mail voting in the 2024 general election. Four districts stand out: CO-08, AZ-01, AZ-06 and CA-22. Each appears in the September 11 Toss Up category from the Cook Political Report, while all are located in states where mail ballots accounted for nearly three-quarters or more of turnout two years ago.
That overlap does not mean the blocked Postal Service rule would have determined the winner. Instead, it identifies close contests where a last-minute change would have intersected with a substantial part of the election system. Mail voting in Colorado accounted for 91.3 percent of statewide turnout in 2024, according to the federal data, with almost 3 million mail ballots counted.
Republican Representative Gabe Evans, a former U.S. Army officer, is running against Democratic State Representative Manny Rutinel, an attorney, in CO-08, which covers parts of the northern Denver suburbs and nearby communities. Cook rates the district a Toss Up, putting it in the most competitive category.
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