Two clubs that have disappointed this year and are likely to miss the postseason meet in the earliest game of Wednesday when Detroit visits Pittsburgh with a 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch in the rubber match of the series. I believe there's a legitimate chance it's the final start this season for struggling Pirates ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes if he's "off" yet again.
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Skenes supported that decision and swears he is healthy despite a noticeable drop in velocity this season and having gone 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA in 11 starts since June 9. The Pirates are 3-8 across Skenes' last 11 starts. The former No. 1 overall pick has been one of the worst starting pitching bets all season as you would be down $983 if you bet Pittsburgh to win all of his outings.
Everything apparently changed around midseason when Skenes changed his delivery – SI's Tom Verducci, one of the most respected MLB guys in the country, did a pretty interesting deep dive on Skenes last week, so I want to make sure I credit him here. I'm aware of pitching mechanics, but I'm certainly no expert on these changes. June 9 was the day Skenes adjusted his stride to be less crossfire than ever before.
Per Verducci, there is a difference since that change in "Skenes' feet position (more direct to the plate) and hand position (less offset) ... and that by not stepping across his body as much, Skenes is releasing the baseball with 8-9" less offset (from the center line of the plate)." Place your Tigers-Pirates wagers and get $1,500 in bonus bets back at BetMGM Sportsbook:: Long story short, right-handed hitters are now killing Skenes. Through June 8, they were hitting .193 and slugging .307. Since that change, those numbers are .301 and .470.
Skenes went just 65 pitches last week in a loss in Miami and averaged career-low 95.7 mph on his fastball. He induced just four misses on 34 swings for a 12% whiff rate, the lowest single-game mark of his big-league career. His average overall fastball velocity this season is 96.8 mph, down from 98.1 mph last season and 98.8 mph in 2024 when winning NL Rookie of the Year.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
